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Andrew Reilly's avatar

Is it really, though? As you say, we'll have to see. Yes it'll be uncomfortable for quite a lot of people, probably for a long time, but lots of those uncomfortable people are going to be Russians. Russia is a country with a GDP about the same as Australia's, spread over six times as many people, and the rest of the world will just have turned that off. Maybe not North Korea levels of "off". Guess we'll see. Maybe that's not the deterrence we decadent think it is.

The world can't afford to turn off trade with China though. As you have pointed out on many occasions, 2025-ish is shaping up to be "interesting".

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Rik's avatar

Yeah...f*** eh?

This whole Russia Ukraine thing is like a reply play of Hitler and Czechoslovakia, all the from the separatists to the justification for invasion. Taking a country and holding a country are two different things (as the US has discovered ever since Vietnam, and the USSR in Afghanistan). Which is what concerns me. Hitler understood this (or his generals did anyway) so they kept moving the front line past want they really super wanted to keep, so struggle zone was somewhere beyond the 'precious'. But heh I'm a pessimistic cat so I think about this stuff.

PS: If shit gets super duper escalated, would wiping Canberra off the face of the earth be of any strategic value to a super power?...um asking for a friend who lives that way.

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