When I was a much younger writer, long before I’d been paid for my first ‘professional’ piece—thirty bucks for a review of all the late-night greasy eating joints in Brisbane, of which there were three back then: the venerable old Windmill cafe, which is still with us;
Not writing in your lair hasn't affected your standard of work JB. Hope your mum is recovering well. Food for thought on many levels, not the least of which is my recollection of life in Brisbane in the mid 1980s. I once was accosted by a member of the International Socialists and took far too long to extract myself from the earnest comrade filled one-sided conversation I found myself trapped in. Perhaps I should have sworn at her because the next day I arrived home to find her sitting with another comrade on my front porch. I still don't know how they got my address, but sweary Felicity took over and I told them if they didn't get off my fucking porch and fuck off I'd fucking call fucking Special Branch. Never seen two comrades move faster...
Studying my masters degree back in the day included a lot of what is called "soft systems theory". Hard systems are what engineers construct, like engines and buildings, and they behave relatively predictably when properly constructed. Soft systems on the other hand are systems with a significant human component, and their behaviour is far less predictable due to the often unreliable or chaotic human input.
One of the chief learnings from studying soft systems is that they don't behave linearly. A soft system can look absolutely fine one moment, then cascade into a completely different system state the next if a system boundary is transgressed. And this is exactly what we're seeing with increasing frequency as humans destroy the underpinnings of the ecological stability of the planet to which we are all inexorably attached.
One of the reasons I moved to the country to live quietly in the moment is that I think this civilisation peaked some time late last century and is now in freefall towards collapse. The Club of Rome model predicted that the start of the end would begin in the 2020s, and it seems even that rudimentary model constructed on the modern computing equivalent of a pocket calculator was correct. The shit is hitting the fan, the cascade has begun. Too many people, too little sense or compassion. This century is getting very ugly indeed.
Our mate Damo asked me a few weeks back if we would ever return to living in precedented times, and I told him I wish I could say yes, but I’m convinced that it will take several decades for precedented times to return.
That is, of course, assuming that these times are unprecedented. I kind of feel they were preceded by what happened between 1914 and 1950, and we’re just watching a century long cycle coming around and repeating itself, but this time with the disruption of global climate systems as the amuse bouche 🤷🏼♀️
I've recently been looking at a few photos of my late grandmother as a teenager. They're really quite sweet & light-hearted: feeding a goat on some autumn Sunday in the country; bundled up warmly, wearing skis with a group of friends on a snowy mountain. But these pictures were taken late 1920s / early 1930s - in Germany. Only a few short years later, it would of course all go to hell.
Jessica Wildfire wrote a similar piece she called "We Live in The Age of the Dragon King. You Can't Predict Anything Anymore". "This mythological creature inspired a systems theorist named Didier Sornette. In the early 2000s, he proposed the dragon king as a way of explaining what experts miss when they assume the steady, predictable behavior of systems. They ignore anomalies and rare events. Dragon kings are possibility on steroids". When you and Jessica Wildfire are talking about similar things I get more worried (I'll already fluctuate between low level concern and peaks of worry now depending on what information I am seeing).
I wonder if The Rupture might be the only possible outcome to the relatively peaceful, pleasant decades since WW2, which convinced many of the billionaire class that genuine, unavoidable consequences of predator capital and unrestrained greed would never arrive. At least, not for them. (Panic room - well, fortified compound really - in NZ, anyone?) But even though the warnings have been coming for at least thirty years and cascading failures are now accumulating, it seems like denial is still popular amongst the uber-wealthy and political classes. Interesting times indeed.
I watched Ready Player One, made in 2018, with my grandson last night. It sadly seems too credible with the depiction of the breakdown of the environment, the living in vehicles, the AI escapism, but also the illustration that the voraciously greedy never leave us.
Thankyou for zooming out and giving us an eagle eye view of this depressing shit. I’ve been flailing around in the details trying to make sense of the senselessness… ugh.
I’m confused. Please excuse the following rant based on your lefties in a shared household.
I come from working class stock. In my late teens and twenties I went and got a commonwealth public service job to bring home the bacon to help support my family, that included 6 siblings and an alcoholic abusive father. During that period I considered myself a pacifist, anarchist and supporter of feminism. But to make a quid, I worked for Defence and then the AFP. So I guess you can consider me a hypocrite.
I don’t, family came first. During the late seventies and 80s I grew increasingly hostile with those leftist who came from middle and upper middle class households who were slumming in shared households as either hippies, ferals or punks during their rebellious Rumspringa phase before returning to the bosom of their families for the safety and comfort of a corporate job courtesy of daddy. Of course not all of them went back.
And for me that explains the failure of my Boomer cohort.
For what it is worth there is a couple of points that need to be made. Tariffs are a double edged sword. It might protect local industry but they do also have economic costs to them. Donald Trump is finding that out the hard way. The thing with tariffs is the company importing the goods pays them and passes them on to the consumer.
The cost of living has gone up in the US. Trump has imposed a high tariff on Brazilian goods because they prosecuted Bolsonaro. The end result is $10 AUD for a cup of coffee for the biggest consumers of coffee in the world. Apparently some of the tariffs have been temporarily shelved but the damage has been done to the US economy and the popularity of the administration.
Hence the performative actions against people who generally cannot fight back. Taking Maduro is spectacular, it shows American military might and demonstrates that the US can strike hard and fast. It could have been done by Obama, Trump the first time around or Biden but it only got done now because of the impact of the tariffs in the cost of living and the shit show that the immigration crack down is having (although that is another bit of performative action that isn't quite working the way Trump wanted).
It reminds me of one of the causes of the Russo-Japanese war. In 1905 the Tsarist regime in Russia went to war with Japan to take the public's attention from the economic and political issues in Russia at the time. Instead of winning the Russians lost the entire Korean peninsula and some islands in the northern Pacific.
The issues with the coalition are different. The Nationals are shit scared of a rising One Nation. Since the Group Voting Ticket (GVT) got abolished the major parties can't direct preferences in the senate which is what One Nation is targeting. There is a real issue with who has the most to loose from the rise of One Nation. I read Kos Samaris' FB posts on the issue and an article in the ninefax sites that said that of the top 10 seats with the highest One Nation vote 7 are held by the Nationals 2 are held by the ALP and 1 by the Libs. The Libs don't have much in the way of skin in the game but it doesn't mean that the ALP gets of scot free the mining seats in QLD and NSW could be their Achilles heel. In the event of a close election.
What I suspect we will see is a long game. Yeah the coalition will dump Sussan as quick as they could. Yeah we will see Hastie or Angus in the leaders seat but watch for more performative actions. Look at what Minns is doing now. A lot of fashwanking the likes of which make Joh Bjelkie-Petersen look like a freedom loving hippie. The thing is it will only last until something goes wrong eg another 19/20 fire season or a mega flood season in Northern NSW.
No but my dad knew someone who had worked for the Southeast Queensland Electricity Board who wound up working for the Electricity Commission of NSW where dad worked. The stories I have heard from him and people who were politically active on the left side of politics at the time do convey the impression that there was a suppression of any dissent.
I am also a historian and have an interest in what happened during this time because it had an impact on national events and even events across the border in NSW. Let's not forget that Joh Bjelkie-Petersen called a state of emergency to enable the Springboks match to be played in Qld after the protests in NSW at the SCG and elsewhere in Australia. There are still things that show the impact of his policies. Ever wondered why there is a very large registered club in Tweed Heads?
I did live through it. And was one of those on the left side of politics. I'm well aware of the history and residual consequences. Your comment about Minns is fair, right up until you claim that his government is more extreme that Bjelke-Petersen's. He has a long way to go before he reaches dictator status.
I don't know if you saw the Guardian today but Minns wants to discourage protesting (the Palestine Action Group Sydney have been having a weekly protest). Minns apparently told reporters that "he planned to introduce a stricter approval process for protests, Minns said he didn’t know about an approval process. Minns apparently told the reporter "I do believe we’re going to have to confront this idea that the centre of Sydney can be dominated weekend after weekend after weekend by the same protests,”. Like all the other authoritarian premiers NSW has had he claimed that he respects the right to protest but “ if you’re the subject of that protest, it’s particularly confronting and quite divisive". So by extension of the logic a white South African would have been confronted by the anti-apartheid protests.
Not writing in your lair hasn't affected your standard of work JB. Hope your mum is recovering well. Food for thought on many levels, not the least of which is my recollection of life in Brisbane in the mid 1980s. I once was accosted by a member of the International Socialists and took far too long to extract myself from the earnest comrade filled one-sided conversation I found myself trapped in. Perhaps I should have sworn at her because the next day I arrived home to find her sitting with another comrade on my front porch. I still don't know how they got my address, but sweary Felicity took over and I told them if they didn't get off my fucking porch and fuck off I'd fucking call fucking Special Branch. Never seen two comrades move faster...
'because the next day I arrived home to find her sitting with another comrade on my front porch'... OMFG. Peak Felafel.
Hahaha, yes, it was all rather Felafelesque. Thanks JB!
Studying my masters degree back in the day included a lot of what is called "soft systems theory". Hard systems are what engineers construct, like engines and buildings, and they behave relatively predictably when properly constructed. Soft systems on the other hand are systems with a significant human component, and their behaviour is far less predictable due to the often unreliable or chaotic human input.
One of the chief learnings from studying soft systems is that they don't behave linearly. A soft system can look absolutely fine one moment, then cascade into a completely different system state the next if a system boundary is transgressed. And this is exactly what we're seeing with increasing frequency as humans destroy the underpinnings of the ecological stability of the planet to which we are all inexorably attached.
One of the reasons I moved to the country to live quietly in the moment is that I think this civilisation peaked some time late last century and is now in freefall towards collapse. The Club of Rome model predicted that the start of the end would begin in the 2020s, and it seems even that rudimentary model constructed on the modern computing equivalent of a pocket calculator was correct. The shit is hitting the fan, the cascade has begun. Too many people, too little sense or compassion. This century is getting very ugly indeed.
Our mate Damo asked me a few weeks back if we would ever return to living in precedented times, and I told him I wish I could say yes, but I’m convinced that it will take several decades for precedented times to return.
That is, of course, assuming that these times are unprecedented. I kind of feel they were preceded by what happened between 1914 and 1950, and we’re just watching a century long cycle coming around and repeating itself, but this time with the disruption of global climate systems as the amuse bouche 🤷🏼♀️
I've recently been looking at a few photos of my late grandmother as a teenager. They're really quite sweet & light-hearted: feeding a goat on some autumn Sunday in the country; bundled up warmly, wearing skis with a group of friends on a snowy mountain. But these pictures were taken late 1920s / early 1930s - in Germany. Only a few short years later, it would of course all go to hell.
Oh wow, that must hurt your head as well as your heart to look at those 🥺
Spot on Elana - though I'm concerned climate change isn't just the amuse bouche, but an offering in every single course on the menu.
I fear you may be right about the menu
Jessica Wildfire wrote a similar piece she called "We Live in The Age of the Dragon King. You Can't Predict Anything Anymore". "This mythological creature inspired a systems theorist named Didier Sornette. In the early 2000s, he proposed the dragon king as a way of explaining what experts miss when they assume the steady, predictable behavior of systems. They ignore anomalies and rare events. Dragon kings are possibility on steroids". When you and Jessica Wildfire are talking about similar things I get more worried (I'll already fluctuate between low level concern and peaks of worry now depending on what information I am seeing).
All hail King Sorrow.
I wonder if The Rupture might be the only possible outcome to the relatively peaceful, pleasant decades since WW2, which convinced many of the billionaire class that genuine, unavoidable consequences of predator capital and unrestrained greed would never arrive. At least, not for them. (Panic room - well, fortified compound really - in NZ, anyone?) But even though the warnings have been coming for at least thirty years and cascading failures are now accumulating, it seems like denial is still popular amongst the uber-wealthy and political classes. Interesting times indeed.
I used to wonder how the billionaire class thought they would still make money if the rest of us were too poor to use their consumables.
I watched Ready Player One, made in 2018, with my grandson last night. It sadly seems too credible with the depiction of the breakdown of the environment, the living in vehicles, the AI escapism, but also the illustration that the voraciously greedy never leave us.
I fear this year will not get better, & perhaps for many years beyond.
Thankyou for zooming out and giving us an eagle eye view of this depressing shit. I’ve been flailing around in the details trying to make sense of the senselessness… ugh.
Great job, JB. You've really put it all together here!
I’m confused. Please excuse the following rant based on your lefties in a shared household.
I come from working class stock. In my late teens and twenties I went and got a commonwealth public service job to bring home the bacon to help support my family, that included 6 siblings and an alcoholic abusive father. During that period I considered myself a pacifist, anarchist and supporter of feminism. But to make a quid, I worked for Defence and then the AFP. So I guess you can consider me a hypocrite.
I don’t, family came first. During the late seventies and 80s I grew increasingly hostile with those leftist who came from middle and upper middle class households who were slumming in shared households as either hippies, ferals or punks during their rebellious Rumspringa phase before returning to the bosom of their families for the safety and comfort of a corporate job courtesy of daddy. Of course not all of them went back.
And for me that explains the failure of my Boomer cohort.
Defence was my first real paying job. I was an ARO.
For what it is worth there is a couple of points that need to be made. Tariffs are a double edged sword. It might protect local industry but they do also have economic costs to them. Donald Trump is finding that out the hard way. The thing with tariffs is the company importing the goods pays them and passes them on to the consumer.
The cost of living has gone up in the US. Trump has imposed a high tariff on Brazilian goods because they prosecuted Bolsonaro. The end result is $10 AUD for a cup of coffee for the biggest consumers of coffee in the world. Apparently some of the tariffs have been temporarily shelved but the damage has been done to the US economy and the popularity of the administration.
Hence the performative actions against people who generally cannot fight back. Taking Maduro is spectacular, it shows American military might and demonstrates that the US can strike hard and fast. It could have been done by Obama, Trump the first time around or Biden but it only got done now because of the impact of the tariffs in the cost of living and the shit show that the immigration crack down is having (although that is another bit of performative action that isn't quite working the way Trump wanted).
It reminds me of one of the causes of the Russo-Japanese war. In 1905 the Tsarist regime in Russia went to war with Japan to take the public's attention from the economic and political issues in Russia at the time. Instead of winning the Russians lost the entire Korean peninsula and some islands in the northern Pacific.
The issues with the coalition are different. The Nationals are shit scared of a rising One Nation. Since the Group Voting Ticket (GVT) got abolished the major parties can't direct preferences in the senate which is what One Nation is targeting. There is a real issue with who has the most to loose from the rise of One Nation. I read Kos Samaris' FB posts on the issue and an article in the ninefax sites that said that of the top 10 seats with the highest One Nation vote 7 are held by the Nationals 2 are held by the ALP and 1 by the Libs. The Libs don't have much in the way of skin in the game but it doesn't mean that the ALP gets of scot free the mining seats in QLD and NSW could be their Achilles heel. In the event of a close election.
What I suspect we will see is a long game. Yeah the coalition will dump Sussan as quick as they could. Yeah we will see Hastie or Angus in the leaders seat but watch for more performative actions. Look at what Minns is doing now. A lot of fashwanking the likes of which make Joh Bjelkie-Petersen look like a freedom loving hippie. The thing is it will only last until something goes wrong eg another 19/20 fire season or a mega flood season in Northern NSW.
Did you live in Brisbane during Bjelke-Petersen's regime?
No but my dad knew someone who had worked for the Southeast Queensland Electricity Board who wound up working for the Electricity Commission of NSW where dad worked. The stories I have heard from him and people who were politically active on the left side of politics at the time do convey the impression that there was a suppression of any dissent.
I am also a historian and have an interest in what happened during this time because it had an impact on national events and even events across the border in NSW. Let's not forget that Joh Bjelkie-Petersen called a state of emergency to enable the Springboks match to be played in Qld after the protests in NSW at the SCG and elsewhere in Australia. There are still things that show the impact of his policies. Ever wondered why there is a very large registered club in Tweed Heads?
I did live through it. And was one of those on the left side of politics. I'm well aware of the history and residual consequences. Your comment about Minns is fair, right up until you claim that his government is more extreme that Bjelke-Petersen's. He has a long way to go before he reaches dictator status.
I don't know if you saw the Guardian today but Minns wants to discourage protesting (the Palestine Action Group Sydney have been having a weekly protest). Minns apparently told reporters that "he planned to introduce a stricter approval process for protests, Minns said he didn’t know about an approval process. Minns apparently told the reporter "I do believe we’re going to have to confront this idea that the centre of Sydney can be dominated weekend after weekend after weekend by the same protests,”. Like all the other authoritarian premiers NSW has had he claimed that he respects the right to protest but “ if you’re the subject of that protest, it’s particularly confronting and quite divisive". So by extension of the logic a white South African would have been confronted by the anti-apartheid protests.
And happy Saturday to you!